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The writeup was done when the line was Cleveland +11-11.5. Enjoy the analysis and please note how it differs from so many in the industry who use grossly manipulated systems and the same simple trends.
ESI...Fully monitored, no gimmicks. Just good ole'fashioned sports 'cappin!
Cleveland at Detroit
Play Cleveland plus the points
Play UNDER the total
No, no, no. After a playoff blowout win, the line is supposed to shade towards the blowout victim not winner. Expect the Cavs to rally hard after Game 1 embarassment, which in all reality was not difficult to see coming, as the line tipped off at 10.5 after opening at 8. Cleveland was off of B2B OT wins over the Wizards, while Detroit had some extra preparation time off of the Milwaukee series. The Cavs and their young leader Lebron improved by leaps and bounds as the season progressed, especially on the road. During March and early April, the Cavs won at Chicago, lost very close come from ahead games to Miami and Dallas, won at New Jersey without Ilgauskas to end the Nets 14 game winning streak, and finally won at New Orleans while the Hornets were fighting for their playoff lives. They then won 2 games at the very tough Verizon Center in the 1st round. They defintely have some learning to do here after blowout loss, but realize that they were sky high, and very unprepared coming off of the Wizards series. The lines for this matchup at this venue during the regular season were +8 and +9, and the +9 in April was with a very gimpy James, so there definitely appears to be value. Knew that defending the 3 pt. line was going to be a difficult task for the Cavs' as Detroit was one of the NBA's top 3 from behind the arc, but can't foresee anywhere near 15-22 Game 1 performance, which destroyed our Game 1 total. That shooting performance really caught the public's eye here, but in all likelihood, cannot be duplicated today. Remember, if the Pistons do start missing, the Cavs are the better rebounding team at +3.0 per game. Second round playoff teams off BB SU/ATS wins and a win by >14 are 16-38$ all playoff teams off a win of 20> are 57-89$. Both systems are since 1990, and provide us with some additional ammo.
We spoke about a return to the norm for Detroit's shooting, and that will no doubt help our UNDER here. Game 1 was the first matchup in 11 tries that went OVER between these two teams, and we now have an additional 2.5 points of line value because of it. Note that the 1st, 2nd, and 4th quarters produced 42, 40, and 40 points while that critical 2nd Q produced 75. There were bench players on the court for both teams during that quarter, and the tempo picked up and the shooting was otherwordly. Cavs' HC Mike Brown has spoken about the late 1Q and 2Q being the key, and with his defensive mindset and background, expect serious adjustments. Expect more of the grind-it-out tempo of the other 3 quarters for Game 2, as Cleveland knows it cannot run with Detroit. Despite their athleticism, the Cavs with Snow, Ilgauskas, Marshall, are a half court team, and were really hurt by the transition 3 pointer in Game 1. Both teams also shot well above their season FT % average in Game 1 as well. Detroit 90-85
The writeup was done when the line was Cleveland +11-11.5. Enjoy the analysis and please note how it differs from so many in the industry who use grossly manipulated systems and the same simple trends.
ESI...Fully monitored, no gimmicks. Just good ole'fashioned sports 'cappin!
Cleveland at Detroit
Play Cleveland plus the points
Play UNDER the total
No, no, no. After a playoff blowout win, the line is supposed to shade towards the blowout victim not winner. Expect the Cavs to rally hard after Game 1 embarassment, which in all reality was not difficult to see coming, as the line tipped off at 10.5 after opening at 8. Cleveland was off of B2B OT wins over the Wizards, while Detroit had some extra preparation time off of the Milwaukee series. The Cavs and their young leader Lebron improved by leaps and bounds as the season progressed, especially on the road. During March and early April, the Cavs won at Chicago, lost very close come from ahead games to Miami and Dallas, won at New Jersey without Ilgauskas to end the Nets 14 game winning streak, and finally won at New Orleans while the Hornets were fighting for their playoff lives. They then won 2 games at the very tough Verizon Center in the 1st round. They defintely have some learning to do here after blowout loss, but realize that they were sky high, and very unprepared coming off of the Wizards series. The lines for this matchup at this venue during the regular season were +8 and +9, and the +9 in April was with a very gimpy James, so there definitely appears to be value. Knew that defending the 3 pt. line was going to be a difficult task for the Cavs' as Detroit was one of the NBA's top 3 from behind the arc, but can't foresee anywhere near 15-22 Game 1 performance, which destroyed our Game 1 total. That shooting performance really caught the public's eye here, but in all likelihood, cannot be duplicated today. Remember, if the Pistons do start missing, the Cavs are the better rebounding team at +3.0 per game. Second round playoff teams off BB SU/ATS wins and a win by >14 are 16-38$ all playoff teams off a win of 20> are 57-89$. Both systems are since 1990, and provide us with some additional ammo.
We spoke about a return to the norm for Detroit's shooting, and that will no doubt help our UNDER here. Game 1 was the first matchup in 11 tries that went OVER between these two teams, and we now have an additional 2.5 points of line value because of it. Note that the 1st, 2nd, and 4th quarters produced 42, 40, and 40 points while that critical 2nd Q produced 75. There were bench players on the court for both teams during that quarter, and the tempo picked up and the shooting was otherwordly. Cavs' HC Mike Brown has spoken about the late 1Q and 2Q being the key, and with his defensive mindset and background, expect serious adjustments. Expect more of the grind-it-out tempo of the other 3 quarters for Game 2, as Cleveland knows it cannot run with Detroit. Despite their athleticism, the Cavs with Snow, Ilgauskas, Marshall, are a half court team, and were really hurt by the transition 3 pointer in Game 1. Both teams also shot well above their season FT % average in Game 1 as well. Detroit 90-85
